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Definitive Analysis

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Shan Xi Huayang Group New Energy Co.,Ltd. (600348.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.52 - $83.54$27.16
Multi-Stage$12.64 - $13.86$13.24
Blended Fair Value$20.20
Current Price$7.37
Upside174.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.54%18.41%0.920.800.340.500.420.190.320.190.140.11
YoY Growth--15.39%138.83%-33.13%19.22%123.99%-40.82%65.47%35.70%33.69%-38.04%
Dividend Yield--13.72%8.67%3.64%6.23%12.49%6.12%7.62%3.99%3.09%2.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,529.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)549.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)980.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)305.99191.24114.75
Cash Retained (M)980.94980.94980.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-305.99-191.24-114.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)674.95789.70866.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,583.473,583.473,583.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.220.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Fair Value$14.52$27.16$83.54
Upside / Downside96.99%268.48%1,033.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,529.941,602.861,679.261,759.301,843.161,931.011,988.94
Payout Ratio35.88%46.71%57.53%68.35%79.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)549.00748.65966.081,202.541,459.351,737.911,839.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Year 1 PV (M)698.17704.89711.62
Year 2 PV (M)840.18856.45872.88
Year 3 PV (M)975.301,003.771,032.79
Year 4 PV (M)1,103.771,146.931,191.36
Year 5 PV (M)1,225.811,286.031,348.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,456.4542,443.7944,508.47
Equity Value (M)45,299.6847,441.8749,665.70
Shares Outstanding (M)3,583.473,583.473,583.47
Fair Value$12.64$13.24$13.86
Upside / Downside71.52%79.63%88.06%

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