DDM Analysis: 600339.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.28 - $6.43	$3.55
Multi-Stage	$2.11 - $2.32	$2.21
Blended Fair Value	$2.88
Current Price	$3.39
Upside	-14.99%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-2.20%	9.12%	0.06	0.05	0.03	0.05	0.05	0.06	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	15.49%	63.52%	-45.20%	7.12%	-19.28%	48.61%	505.46%	-76.97%	-38.31%	109.31%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.69%	1.49%	0.79%	1.81%	1.40%	2.37%	0.88%	0.17%	0.42%	0.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	526.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	148.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)	377.93

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	105.31	65.82	39.49
Cash Retained (M)	377.93	377.93	377.93
(-) Cash Required (M)	-105.31	-65.82	-39.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)	272.62	312.11	338.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5,582.29	5,582.29	5,582.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.08	0.08	0.09
WACC / Discount Rate	7.16%	7.16%	7.16%
Growth Rate	3.72%	4.72%	5.72%
Fair Value	$2.28	$3.55	$6.43
Upside / Downside	-32.77%	4.74%	89.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	526.56	551.42	577.45	604.72	633.27	663.16	683.06
Payout Ratio	28.23%	40.58%	52.94%	65.29%	77.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	148.63	223.78	305.68	394.82	491.70	596.85	631.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.16%	7.16%	7.16%
Growth Rate	3.72%	4.72%	5.72%
Year 1 PV (M)	206.84	208.83	210.83
Year 2 PV (M)	261.16	266.22	271.33
Year 3 PV (M)	311.79	320.90	330.18
Year 4 PV (M)	358.91	372.95	387.40
Year 5 PV (M)	402.68	422.47	443.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,258.92	10,763.09	11,286.89
Equity Value (M)	11,800.29	12,354.46	12,929.65
Shares Outstanding (M)	5,582.29	5,582.29	5,582.29
Fair Value	$2.11	$2.21	$2.32
Upside / Downside	-37.64%	-34.72%	-31.68%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

China Petroleum Engineering Corporation (600339.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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