Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Xinli Finance Co., Ltd. (600318.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.29 - $0.39$0.34
Multi-Stage$1.07 - $1.19$1.13
Blended Fair Value$0.74
Current Price$9.50
Upside-92.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.03%-4.99%0.060.080.100.130.120.170.180.080.260.21
YoY Growth---22.61%-21.85%-23.07%8.52%-31.05%-4.95%130.35%-68.94%24.90%102.72%
Dividend Yield--0.61%1.14%1.52%1.00%1.69%1.99%2.00%0.72%1.79%1.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.494.682.81
Cash Retained (M)19.1219.1219.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.49-4.68-2.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.6314.4416.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)512.66512.66512.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate-11.52%-10.52%-9.52%
Fair Value$0.29$0.34$0.39
Upside / Downside-96.90%-96.37%-95.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.4633.5229.9926.8424.0221.4922.13
Payout Ratio48.95%57.16%65.37%73.58%81.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.3419.1619.6119.7519.6419.3420.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate-11.52%-10.52%-9.52%
Year 1 PV (M)17.8618.0618.26
Year 2 PV (M)17.0417.4317.82
Year 3 PV (M)16.0016.5517.11
Year 4 PV (M)14.8415.5216.22
Year 5 PV (M)13.6214.4115.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)470.09497.26525.67
Equity Value (M)549.45579.23610.32
Shares Outstanding (M)512.66512.66512.66
Fair Value$1.07$1.13$1.19
Upside / Downside-88.72%-88.11%-87.47%

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