Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co., Ltd. (600316.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.55 - $0.88$0.70
Multi-Stage$0.70 - $0.76$0.73
Blended Fair Value$0.72
Current Price$37.90
Upside-98.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.56%-15.57%0.010.060.070.070.040.010.110.130.050.07
YoY Growth---74.58%-12.55%0.22%85.82%201.90%-89.36%-9.82%137.53%-28.19%-9.99%
Dividend Yield--0.04%0.32%0.26%0.25%0.11%0.10%0.64%0.92%0.25%0.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.384.612.77
Cash Retained (M)24.7024.7024.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.38-4.61-2.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.3220.0921.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)717.27717.27717.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Fair Value$0.55$0.70$0.88
Upside / Downside-98.55%-98.15%-97.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.8937.8238.7739.7440.7441.7643.01
Payout Ratio33.05%44.44%55.83%67.22%78.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.1916.8021.6426.7132.0237.5939.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate1.51%2.51%3.51%
Year 1 PV (M)15.2515.4015.55
Year 2 PV (M)17.8318.1818.54
Year 3 PV (M)19.9820.5721.18
Year 4 PV (M)21.7422.6123.50
Year 5 PV (M)23.1624.3225.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)402.06422.26443.26
Equity Value (M)500.01523.34547.56
Shares Outstanding (M)717.27717.27717.27
Fair Value$0.70$0.73$0.76
Upside / Downside-98.16%-98.07%-97.99%

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