Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Hengshun Vinegar-Industry Co.,Ltd (600305.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.28 - $1.97$1.60
Multi-Stage$2.08 - $2.29$2.18
Blended Fair Value$1.89
Current Price$7.92
Upside-76.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.02%1.57%0.070.100.090.150.150.090.090.050.070.04
YoY Growth---29.69%5.58%-36.91%-2.98%70.13%6.06%59.35%-25.53%94.11%-38.13%
Dividend Yield--0.95%1.22%0.79%1.40%0.81%0.59%0.79%0.88%1.13%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)148.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)65.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)83.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.7918.6211.17
Cash Retained (M)83.2383.2383.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.79-18.62-11.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)53.4564.6272.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,100.861,100.861,100.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate-0.43%0.57%1.57%
Fair Value$1.28$1.60$1.97
Upside / Downside-83.90%-79.82%-75.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)148.94149.78150.63151.49152.35153.22157.81
Payout Ratio44.11%53.29%62.47%71.65%80.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)65.7079.8294.10108.54123.13137.89145.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate-0.43%0.57%1.57%
Year 1 PV (M)73.1673.9074.63
Year 2 PV (M)79.0580.6582.26
Year 3 PV (M)83.5786.1288.71
Year 4 PV (M)86.9090.4594.10
Year 5 PV (M)89.2093.7798.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,881.761,978.172,078.49
Equity Value (M)2,293.642,403.052,516.72
Shares Outstanding (M)1,100.861,100.861,100.86
Fair Value$2.08$2.18$2.29
Upside / Downside-73.69%-72.44%-71.13%

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