Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Lushang Freda Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Class A (600223.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.11 - $1.53$1.32
Multi-Stage$4.78 - $5.30$5.03
Blended Fair Value$3.18
Current Price$7.71
Upside-58.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.68%-6.61%0.180.480.110.200.110.050.730.650.620.43
YoY Growth---62.38%339.57%-45.00%83.30%120.00%-93.22%12.05%4.48%44.26%20.20%
Dividend Yield--2.40%5.63%1.03%1.81%0.91%0.74%18.17%17.58%11.67%7.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)214.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)157.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.8226.7616.06
Cash Retained (M)157.36157.36157.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.82-26.76-16.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)114.54130.60141.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,015.511,015.511,015.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.20
WACC / Discount Rate5.28%5.28%5.28%
Growth Rate-8.61%-7.61%-6.61%
Fair Value$1.11$1.32$1.53
Upside / Downside-85.60%-82.85%-80.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)214.11197.82182.77168.86156.01144.14148.47
Payout Ratio26.50%39.20%51.90%64.60%77.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.7577.5594.86109.09120.60129.73137.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.28%5.28%5.28%
Growth Rate-8.61%-7.61%-6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)72.8773.6674.46
Year 2 PV (M)83.7485.5987.45
Year 3 PV (M)90.4893.4996.56
Year 4 PV (M)93.9998.17102.49
Year 5 PV (M)95.00100.31105.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,413.234,660.024,917.73
Equity Value (M)4,849.315,111.245,384.54
Shares Outstanding (M)1,015.511,015.511,015.51
Fair Value$4.78$5.03$5.30
Upside / Downside-38.06%-34.72%-31.23%

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