Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co., Ltd. (600210.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.27 - $22.94$16.62
Multi-Stage$20.01 - $22.02$20.99
Blended Fair Value$18.81
Current Price$7.40
Upside154.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.55%1.31%0.310.330.340.330.290.260.270.230.180.21
YoY Growth---6.47%-1.24%1.92%15.78%9.21%-3.08%16.08%29.57%-13.06%-24.50%
Dividend Yield--4.45%6.35%5.95%5.57%5.98%6.25%5.58%5.00%3.32%3.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,246.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,182.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)249.39155.8793.52
Cash Retained (M)1,182.151,182.151,182.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-249.39-155.87-93.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)932.761,026.281,088.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,515.561,515.561,515.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.680.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.680.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate0.92%1.92%2.92%
Fair Value$12.27$16.62$22.94
Upside / Downside65.78%124.59%209.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,246.941,270.891,295.291,320.171,345.531,371.371,412.51
Payout Ratio5.20%22.16%39.12%56.08%73.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.79281.58506.69740.33982.761,234.231,306.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate0.92%1.92%2.92%
Year 1 PV (M)262.21264.81267.41
Year 2 PV (M)439.36448.11456.94
Year 3 PV (M)597.78615.73634.03
Year 4 PV (M)738.94768.66799.28
Year 5 PV (M)864.16907.83953.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,427.0728,813.1130,254.63
Equity Value (M)30,329.5231,818.2633,365.54
Shares Outstanding (M)1,515.561,515.561,515.56
Fair Value$20.01$20.99$22.02
Upside / Downside170.43%183.71%197.50%

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