Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Baotou Huazi Industry Co., Ltd (600191.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.60 - $0.87$0.73
Multi-Stage$0.85 - $0.94$0.89
Blended Fair Value$0.81
Current Price$7.89
Upside-89.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.42%-21.51%0.010.020.020.000.020.010.020.010.100.07
YoY Growth---68.75%-9.27%0.00%-100.00%9.75%-43.81%143.23%-90.00%36.50%3.63%
Dividend Yield--0.09%0.38%0.39%0.00%0.41%0.19%0.42%0.13%1.01%0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.864.912.95
Cash Retained (M)35.5335.5335.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.86-4.91-2.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.6730.6232.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)484.82484.82484.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.070.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate-0.96%0.04%1.04%
Fair Value$0.60$0.73$0.87
Upside / Downside-92.38%-90.71%-88.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39.3139.3339.3439.3639.3839.4040.58
Payout Ratio9.61%25.68%41.76%57.84%73.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.7810.1016.4322.7729.1135.4637.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.73%9.73%9.73%
Growth Rate-0.96%0.04%1.04%
Year 1 PV (M)9.119.219.30
Year 2 PV (M)13.3813.6513.92
Year 3 PV (M)16.7217.2317.76
Year 4 PV (M)19.2920.0820.90
Year 5 PV (M)21.2022.2923.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)333.65350.84368.73
Equity Value (M)413.35433.30454.02
Shares Outstanding (M)484.82484.82484.82
Fair Value$0.85$0.89$0.94
Upside / Downside-89.19%-88.67%-88.13%

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