Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Gamuda Berhad (5398.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.85 - $38.71$36.28
Multi-Stage$23.00 - $25.25$24.10
Blended Fair Value$30.19
Current Price$5.18
Upside482.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-7.39%-5.99%0.030.010.210.010.000.040.030.060.060.06
YoY Growth--107.67%-93.02%2,082.76%0.00%-100.00%52.47%-49.87%1.02%1.03%1.48%
Dividend Yield--0.58%0.34%8.87%0.49%0.00%2.62%1.54%4.78%2.16%2.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,003.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)153.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)849.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)200.64125.4075.24
Cash Retained (M)849.39849.39849.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-200.64-125.40-75.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)648.74723.99774.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,154.395,154.395,154.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate1.65%1.65%1.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.85$36.28$38.71
Upside / Downside534.25%600.29%647.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,003.221,068.431,137.881,211.841,290.611,374.501,415.74
Payout Ratio15.33%30.27%45.20%60.13%75.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)153.84323.39514.33728.73968.821,237.051,309.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.65%1.65%1.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)315.16318.14321.13
Year 2 PV (M)488.48497.79507.18
Year 3 PV (M)674.49693.85713.58
Year 4 PV (M)873.90907.51942.07
Year 5 PV (M)1,087.451,139.971,194.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)115,118.70120,678.98126,452.06
Equity Value (M)118,558.18124,236.24130,130.53
Shares Outstanding (M)5,154.395,154.395,154.39
Fair Value$23.00$24.10$25.25
Upside / Downside344.04%365.31%387.38%

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