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Definitive Analysis

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OBIC Business Consultants Co., Ltd. (4733.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14,257.03 - $44,506.77$41,709.36
Multi-Stage$6,009.79 - $6,573.96$6,286.71
Blended Fair Value$23,998.04
Current Price$9,100.00
Upside163.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.71%13.62%94.9969.9969.9964.9850.0149.9739.9937.5034.9929.00
YoY Growth--35.72%0.00%7.71%29.94%0.08%24.95%6.66%7.16%20.68%9.42%
Dividend Yield--1.11%1.04%1.33%1.39%0.78%0.87%0.81%0.95%1.19%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,823.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,518.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,304.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,364.762,102.981,261.79
Cash Retained (M)9,304.859,304.859,304.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,364.76-2,102.98-1,261.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,940.097,201.878,043.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)75.1875.1875.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share79.0295.80106.99
LTM Dividend per Share100.02100.02100.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share79.0295.80106.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend179.03195.82207.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14,257.03$41,709.36$44,506.77
Upside / Downside56.67%358.34%389.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,823.8017,917.3519,081.9820,322.3121,643.2623,050.0723,741.57
Payout Ratio44.69%53.75%62.82%71.88%80.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,518.969,631.2711,986.4214,607.0517,517.7220,745.0621,960.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8,931.299,015.959,100.61
Year 2 PV (M)10,307.4410,503.7710,701.95
Year 3 PV (M)11,648.0911,982.4612,323.17
Year 4 PV (M)12,953.8913,452.0613,964.46
Year 5 PV (M)14,225.5214,912.6115,626.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)393,724.68412,741.73432,486.60
Equity Value (M)451,790.91472,608.58494,202.81
Shares Outstanding (M)75.1875.1875.18
Fair Value$6,009.79$6,286.71$6,573.96
Upside / Downside-33.96%-30.92%-27.76%

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