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UMW Holdings Berhad (4588.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.53 - $9.87$8.10
Multi-Stage$13.03 - $14.35$13.68
Blended Fair Value$10.89
Current Price$4.76
Upside128.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%-7.14%0.150.100.080.120.080.000.100.410.440.50
YoY Growth--48.10%25.07%-35.98%55.19%0.00%-100.00%-75.61%-6.82%-12.00%61.29%
Dividend Yield--3.84%3.03%2.45%5.82%1.41%0.00%1.81%6.46%4.39%4.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)887.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)686.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)177.47110.9266.55
Cash Retained (M)686.41686.41686.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-177.47-110.92-66.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)508.94575.49619.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,168.291,168.291,168.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.490.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.490.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.53$8.10$9.87
Upside / Downside37.15%70.20%107.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)887.33878.45869.67860.97852.36843.84869.15
Payout Ratio22.64%36.11%49.59%63.06%76.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.92317.25431.23542.90652.30759.45803.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)293.17296.16299.15
Year 2 PV (M)368.25375.81383.44
Year 3 PV (M)428.42441.67455.19
Year 4 PV (M)475.68495.40515.72
Year 5 PV (M)511.78538.43566.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,147.3013,831.9114,544.75
Equity Value (M)15,224.6115,979.3816,764.43
Shares Outstanding (M)1,168.291,168.291,168.29
Fair Value$13.03$13.68$14.35
Upside / Downside173.77%187.34%201.46%

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