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Definitive Analysis

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Daiichi Sankyo Company, Limited (4568.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16,598.90 - $31,173.95$29,214.56
Multi-Stage$4,892.29 - $5,355.66$5,119.72
Blended Fair Value$17,167.14
Current Price$3,365.00
Upside410.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS20.31%10.46%60.5635.5428.9427.4125.9324.0324.0224.5923.2525.68
YoY Growth--70.42%22.82%5.58%5.69%7.92%0.04%-2.33%5.77%-9.45%14.71%
Dividend Yield--1.80%0.65%0.64%0.80%1.08%0.82%1.21%1.74%2.64%3.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)295,873.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)113,216.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)182,657.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59,174.6036,984.1322,190.48
Cash Retained (M)182,657.00182,657.00182,657.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-59,174.60-36,984.13-22,190.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)123,482.40145,672.88160,466.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,887.531,887.531,887.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share65.4277.1885.01
LTM Dividend per Share59.9859.9859.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share65.4277.1885.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend125.40137.16145.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16,598.90$29,214.56$31,173.95
Upside / Downside393.28%768.19%826.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)295,873.00315,104.75335,586.55357,399.68380,630.66405,371.65417,532.80
Payout Ratio38.27%48.61%58.96%69.31%79.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)113,216.00153,178.89197,858.61247,699.52303,183.79364,834.49386,217.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)142,751.48144,104.58145,457.67
Year 2 PV (M)171,837.68175,110.70178,414.61
Year 3 PV (M)200,479.66206,234.71212,098.86
Year 4 PV (M)228,682.46237,476.94246,522.68
Year 5 PV (M)256,451.05268,837.74281,698.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,234,135.758,631,847.599,044,780.79
Equity Value (M)9,234,338.099,663,612.2610,108,973.09
Shares Outstanding (M)1,887.531,887.531,887.53
Fair Value$4,892.29$5,119.72$5,355.66
Upside / Downside45.39%52.15%59.16%

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