Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hennge K.K. (4475.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$230.11 - $324.32$276.79
Multi-Stage$330.00 - $362.64$346.01
Blended Fair Value$311.40
Current Price$1,812.00
Upside-82.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,161.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,064.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)232.22145.1487.08
Cash Retained (M)1,064.841,064.841,064.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-232.22-145.14-87.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)832.63919.71977.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.2232.2232.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share25.8528.5530.35
LTM Dividend per Share2.992.992.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share25.8528.5530.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend28.8331.5433.34
WACC / Discount Rate10.28%10.28%10.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$230.11$276.79$324.32
Upside / Downside-87.30%-84.72%-82.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,161.081,149.471,137.981,126.601,115.331,104.181,137.30
Payout Ratio8.29%24.63%40.97%57.32%73.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.24283.13466.27645.71821.53993.761,052.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.28%10.28%10.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)254.14256.74259.33
Year 2 PV (M)375.69383.39391.18
Year 3 PV (M)467.01481.46496.19
Year 4 PV (M)533.35555.45578.24
Year 5 PV (M)579.11609.27640.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,421.898,860.439,317.06
Equity Value (M)10,631.1911,146.7411,682.67
Shares Outstanding (M)32.2232.2232.22
Fair Value$330.00$346.01$362.64
Upside / Downside-81.79%-80.90%-79.99%

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