Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

M - mart Inc. (4380.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$750.45 - $1,165.30$942.35
Multi-Stage$1,714.21 - $1,888.93$1,799.84
Blended Fair Value$1,371.09
Current Price$1,280.00
Upside7.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%17.9913.009.989.975.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--38.35%30.27%0.15%99.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.44%0.97%0.71%1.17%0.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)389.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)287.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.9648.7229.23
Cash Retained (M)287.79287.79287.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.96-48.72-29.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)209.83239.07258.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.894.894.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share42.9148.8952.87
LTM Dividend per Share20.8620.8620.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share42.9148.8952.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend63.7669.7473.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$750.45$942.35$1,165.30
Upside / Downside-41.37%-26.38%-8.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)389.79385.89382.03378.21374.43370.69381.81
Payout Ratio26.17%38.93%51.70%64.47%77.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.00150.24197.51243.82289.19333.62353.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)139.88141.30142.73
Year 2 PV (M)171.20174.71178.25
Year 3 PV (M)196.75202.84209.05
Year 4 PV (M)217.25226.26235.54
Year 5 PV (M)233.34245.49258.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,424.687,811.308,213.86
Equity Value (M)8,383.108,801.909,237.57
Shares Outstanding (M)4.894.894.89
Fair Value$1,714.21$1,799.84$1,888.93
Upside / Downside33.92%40.61%47.57%

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