Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Daiki Axis Co., Ltd. (4245.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$375.74 - $906.31$557.49
Multi-Stage$450.68 - $493.63$471.75
Blended Fair Value$514.62
Current Price$683.00
Upside-24.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.02%8.02%27.8427.8424.6723.7222.4723.9920.5916.3814.0415.91
YoY Growth--0.00%12.84%3.99%5.59%-6.35%16.49%25.71%16.67%-11.76%23.64%
Dividend Yield--4.06%3.62%3.53%3.13%2.34%3.24%2.47%1.01%1.51%3.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)237.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)73.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.4029.6317.78
Cash Retained (M)73.0073.0073.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.40-29.63-17.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.6043.3855.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.2613.2613.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.933.274.17
LTM Dividend per Share12.3712.3712.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.933.274.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.3015.6416.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate2.75%3.75%4.75%
Fair Value$375.74$557.49$906.31
Upside / Downside-44.99%-18.38%32.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)237.00245.90255.13264.70274.64284.95293.50
Payout Ratio69.20%73.36%77.52%81.68%85.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.00180.39197.77216.21235.75256.45271.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate2.75%3.75%4.75%
Year 1 PV (M)167.48169.11170.74
Year 2 PV (M)170.49173.83177.19
Year 3 PV (M)173.06178.16183.36
Year 4 PV (M)175.20182.12189.24
Year 5 PV (M)176.96185.74194.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,110.895,364.485,628.03
Equity Value (M)5,974.086,253.436,543.43
Shares Outstanding (M)13.2613.2613.26
Fair Value$450.68$471.75$493.63
Upside / Downside-34.02%-30.93%-27.73%

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