Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Middle East Healthcare Company (4009.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$256.27 - $802.14$751.72
Multi-Stage$105.67 - $115.73$110.61
Blended Fair Value$431.17
Current Price$57.20
Upside653.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.002.002.002.001.80
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%11.11%80.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%6.26%3.48%2.70%2.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)371.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)325.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.2546.4027.84
Cash Retained (M)325.21325.21325.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.25-46.40-27.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)250.97278.81297.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)92.0492.0492.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.733.033.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.733.033.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.233.533.73
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$256.27$751.72$802.14
Upside / Downside348.02%1,214.20%1,302.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)371.23395.36421.06448.43477.58508.62523.88
Payout Ratio12.40%27.92%43.44%58.96%74.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.02110.37182.90264.39355.70457.76484.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)102.35103.32104.29
Year 2 PV (M)157.27160.27163.29
Year 3 PV (M)210.81216.86223.03
Year 4 PV (M)262.99273.11283.51
Year 5 PV (M)313.85329.01344.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,678.929,098.119,533.35
Equity Value (M)9,726.1910,180.6710,652.22
Shares Outstanding (M)92.0492.0492.04
Fair Value$105.67$110.61$115.73
Upside / Downside84.74%93.38%102.33%

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