Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Hanking Holdings Limited (3788.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.93 - $41.23$16.01
Multi-Stage$6.05 - $6.63$6.33
Blended Fair Value$11.17
Current Price$2.09
Upside434.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.73%6.65%0.040.020.120.110.100.020.010.170.000.00
YoY Growth--80.51%-83.77%10.49%11.09%502.75%114.94%-95.32%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--5.02%2.58%17.75%10.28%8.77%1.13%0.89%15.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)403.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)145.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)257.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.6850.4330.26
Cash Retained (M)257.54257.54257.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.68-50.43-30.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)176.86207.11227.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,921.191,921.191,921.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate4.14%5.14%6.14%
Fair Value$7.93$16.01$41.23
Upside / Downside279.32%665.99%1,872.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)403.40424.15445.96468.89493.00518.35533.90
Payout Ratio36.16%46.93%57.70%68.46%79.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)145.86199.04257.29321.02390.61466.52493.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate4.14%5.14%6.14%
Year 1 PV (M)185.38187.16188.94
Year 2 PV (M)223.18227.49231.84
Year 3 PV (M)259.34266.89274.58
Year 4 PV (M)293.91305.36317.14
Year 5 PV (M)326.93342.93359.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,334.2110,839.9911,365.38
Equity Value (M)11,622.9512,169.8112,737.42
Shares Outstanding (M)1,921.191,921.191,921.19
Fair Value$6.05$6.33$6.63
Upside / Downside189.47%203.09%217.22%

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