Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Leadtrend Technology Corporation (3588.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.23 - $33.36$24.49
Multi-Stage$28.38 - $31.17$29.75
Blended Fair Value$27.12
Current Price$46.08
Upside-41.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.93%-12.88%0.400.872.970.490.800.600.401.211.181.59
YoY Growth---54.54%-70.62%504.82%-38.54%33.30%49.56%-66.93%2.38%-25.43%0.83%
Dividend Yield--0.78%0.84%5.22%0.40%1.10%3.17%2.11%6.02%4.70%6.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)74.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.889.305.58
Cash Retained (M)51.1251.1251.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.88-9.30-5.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.2441.8245.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)58.6858.6858.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.710.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.710.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.011.111.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate1.08%2.08%3.08%
Fair Value$18.23$24.49$33.36
Upside / Downside-60.44%-46.85%-27.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)74.3975.9477.5279.1480.7982.4784.94
Payout Ratio31.29%43.03%54.77%66.52%78.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.2832.6842.4652.6463.2274.2278.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate1.08%2.08%3.08%
Year 1 PV (M)30.3230.6230.92
Year 2 PV (M)36.5637.2938.03
Year 3 PV (M)42.0643.3244.61
Year 4 PV (M)46.8848.7650.70
Year 5 PV (M)51.0753.6556.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,458.521,532.111,608.64
Equity Value (M)1,665.431,745.761,829.23
Shares Outstanding (M)58.6858.6858.68
Fair Value$28.38$29.75$31.17
Upside / Downside-38.41%-35.44%-32.35%

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