Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Forcecon Technology Co., Ltd. (3483.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$125.80 - $328.32$191.39
Multi-Stage$84.04 - $91.96$87.93
Blended Fair Value$139.66
Current Price$107.00
Upside30.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS141.32%50.32%4.383.162.371.430.310.050.220.450.050.07
YoY Growth--38.40%33.71%65.35%363.30%477.26%-75.46%-51.11%828.45%-35.38%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.18%2.40%3.83%1.92%0.31%0.15%0.56%2.37%0.25%0.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)536.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)536.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.3967.1240.27
Cash Retained (M)536.95536.95536.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.39-67.12-40.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)429.56469.83496.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)98.8298.8298.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.354.755.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.354.755.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.354.755.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.15%9.15%9.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$125.80$191.39$328.32
Upside / Downside17.57%78.87%206.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)536.95571.85609.02648.61690.77735.67757.74
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.00102.94219.25350.25497.35662.10700.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.15%9.15%9.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)93.4394.3195.20
Year 2 PV (M)180.61184.05187.52
Year 3 PV (M)261.86269.38277.03
Year 4 PV (M)337.48350.46363.81
Year 5 PV (M)407.76427.45447.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,023.737,362.987,715.22
Equity Value (M)8,304.868,688.639,086.68
Shares Outstanding (M)98.8298.8298.82
Fair Value$84.04$87.93$91.96
Upside / Downside-21.45%-17.82%-14.06%

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