Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Boton Group Company Limited (3318.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.94 - $1.53$1.21
Multi-Stage$2.58 - $2.84$2.71
Blended Fair Value$1.96
Current Price$1.59
Upside23.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS52.94%0.00%0.030.000.000.000.030.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%802.76%4.83%31.47%-28.35%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.43%0.32%0.15%0.19%0.18%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)95.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)77.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.0711.927.15
Cash Retained (M)77.9177.9177.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.07-11.92-7.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.8465.9970.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,080.261,080.261,080.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate5.48%5.48%5.48%
Growth Rate-1.86%-0.86%0.14%
Fair Value$0.94$1.21$1.53
Upside / Downside-40.60%-24.02%-3.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)95.3494.5293.7192.9092.1191.3194.05
Payout Ratio18.28%32.62%46.97%61.31%75.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.4330.8344.0156.9669.6882.1887.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.48%5.48%5.48%
Growth Rate-1.86%-0.86%0.14%
Year 1 PV (M)28.9429.2329.53
Year 2 PV (M)38.7639.5640.36
Year 3 PV (M)47.0848.5450.02
Year 4 PV (M)54.0656.2958.60
Year 5 PV (M)59.8362.9466.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,555.482,688.362,826.70
Equity Value (M)2,784.162,924.923,071.39
Shares Outstanding (M)1,080.261,080.261,080.26
Fair Value$2.58$2.71$2.84
Upside / Downside62.09%70.29%78.82%

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