Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Iida Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (3291.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Residential ConstructionSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,792.48 - $2,779.36$2,249.37
Multi-Stage$2,613.54 - $2,871.04$2,739.82
Blended Fair Value$2,494.59
Current Price$2,361.50
Upside5.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.14%9.61%90.8291.1292.9891.3464.3764.3463.3063.3347.7239.42
YoY Growth---0.32%-2.01%1.80%41.90%0.04%1.65%-0.05%32.69%21.05%8.66%
Dividend Yield--4.47%4.35%3.83%4.37%2.25%3.90%3.51%2.96%2.55%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51,962.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,307.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)45,654.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,392.406,495.253,897.15
Cash Retained (M)45,654.5045,654.5045,654.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,392.40-6,495.25-3,897.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)35,262.1039,159.2541,757.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)277.82277.82277.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share126.92140.95150.30
LTM Dividend per Share22.7022.7022.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share126.92140.95150.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend149.63163.65173.01
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Fair Value$1,792.48$2,249.37$2,779.36
Upside / Downside-24.10%-4.75%17.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51,962.0052,522.9153,089.8753,662.9454,242.2154,827.7356,472.56
Payout Ratio12.14%27.71%43.28%58.86%74.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,307.5014,554.5922,979.0031,583.5840,371.2549,344.9652,237.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Year 1 PV (M)13,289.8013,422.5913,555.38
Year 2 PV (M)19,158.7819,543.5619,932.17
Year 3 PV (M)24,044.5324,772.5225,515.06
Year 4 PV (M)28,063.7429,202.3230,375.20
Year 5 PV (M)31,320.9232,917.3134,578.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)610,220.66641,322.84673,680.48
Equity Value (M)726,098.43761,181.14797,636.43
Shares Outstanding (M)277.82277.82277.82
Fair Value$2,613.54$2,739.82$2,871.04
Upside / Downside10.67%16.02%21.58%

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