Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Saibo Co., Ltd. (3123.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$857.06 - $1,573.97$1,153.05
Multi-Stage$1,456.44 - $1,601.06$1,527.36
Blended Fair Value$1,340.20
Current Price$496.00
Upside170.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS2.75%0.00%16.0616.0614.0514.0514.0414.030.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.02%14.30%0.02%0.09%0.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.24%3.16%3.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)774.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)208.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)566.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)154.8596.7858.07
Cash Retained (M)566.18566.18566.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-154.85-96.78-58.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)411.33469.40508.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.0313.0313.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share31.5736.0339.00
LTM Dividend per Share15.9715.9715.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share31.5736.0339.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend47.5451.9954.97
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Fair Value$857.06$1,153.05$1,573.97
Upside / Downside72.79%132.47%217.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)774.26787.79801.56815.56829.81844.32869.64
Payout Ratio26.87%39.50%52.12%64.75%77.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)208.08311.17417.81528.07642.07759.88804.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Year 1 PV (M)289.76292.63295.51
Year 2 PV (M)362.28369.50376.80
Year 3 PV (M)426.37439.20452.27
Year 4 PV (M)482.73502.19522.22
Year 5 PV (M)531.99558.93586.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,883.7817,738.5118,627.51
Equity Value (M)18,976.9219,900.9620,861.25
Shares Outstanding (M)13.0313.0313.03
Fair Value$1,456.44$1,527.36$1,601.06
Upside / Downside193.64%207.93%222.79%

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