Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aidite Qinhuangdao Technology Co Ltd (301580.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - SpecialtiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.81 - $2.18$2.02
Multi-Stage$1.21 - $1.27$1.24
Blended Fair Value$1.63
Current Price$44.01
Upside-96.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.010.190.250.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-94.05%-23.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)131.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.1922.6213.57
Cash Retained (M)131.33131.33131.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.19-22.62-13.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)95.15108.72117.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)90.1590.1590.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.061.211.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.061.211.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.611.761.86
WACC / Discount Rate85.00%85.00%85.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.81$2.02$2.18
Upside / Downside-95.89%-95.41%-95.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180.93179.12177.33175.55173.80172.06177.22
Payout Ratio27.41%39.93%52.45%64.96%77.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.6071.5293.00114.05134.66154.85163.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate85.00%85.00%85.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)38.2738.6639.05
Year 2 PV (M)26.6327.1727.73
Year 3 PV (M)17.4718.0118.56
Year 4 PV (M)11.0411.5011.97
Year 5 PV (M)6.797.157.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)8.779.239.70
Equity Value (M)108.97111.72114.53
Shares Outstanding (M)90.1590.1590.15
Fair Value$1.21$1.24$1.27
Upside / Downside-97.25%-97.18%-97.11%

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