Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guangdong Huicheng Vacuum Technology Co., Ltd. (301392.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.75 - $275.71$98.97
Multi-Stage$28.71 - $31.41$30.03
Blended Fair Value$64.50
Current Price$119.21
Upside-45.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS15.51%0.00%0.350.070.120.280.120.170.080.000.000.00
YoY Growth--403.13%-43.01%-56.20%140.47%-31.90%126.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.07%0.12%0.27%0.11%0.16%0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)115.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)90.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.0514.408.64
Cash Retained (M)90.0890.0890.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.05-14.40-8.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.0475.6881.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.1283.1283.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.910.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.910.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.111.211.28
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$50.75$98.97$275.71
Upside / Downside-57.42%-16.98%131.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)115.24122.73130.71139.20148.25157.89162.62
Payout Ratio21.83%35.46%49.10%62.73%76.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.1543.5264.1787.32113.21142.10150.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.9940.3740.75
Year 2 PV (M)54.1855.2256.26
Year 3 PV (M)67.7569.7071.68
Year 4 PV (M)80.7183.8287.01
Year 5 PV (M)93.0997.59102.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,050.732,149.782,252.63
Equity Value (M)2,386.472,496.472,610.58
Shares Outstanding (M)83.1283.1283.12
Fair Value$28.71$30.03$31.41
Upside / Downside-75.92%-74.81%-73.65%

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