Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chenming Electronic Tech. Corp. (3013.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$73.61 - $158.67$105.10
Multi-Stage$53.26 - $58.18$55.67
Blended Fair Value$80.39
Current Price$118.00
Upside-31.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.90%0.00%0.380.280.060.230.230.240.410.410.260.00
YoY Growth--33.33%359.55%-72.66%0.00%-4.30%-42.47%0.00%59.17%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.46%0.28%1.69%1.57%2.10%2.28%2.02%1.17%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)797.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)123.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)674.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)159.5999.7559.85
Cash Retained (M)674.89674.89674.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-159.59-99.75-59.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)515.30575.14615.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)207.45207.45207.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.482.772.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.482.772.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.083.373.56
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$73.61$105.10$158.67
Upside / Downside-37.62%-10.93%34.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)797.97849.84905.08963.911,026.571,093.291,126.09
Payout Ratio15.42%30.34%45.25%60.17%75.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)123.08257.84409.59579.98770.80983.961,041.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.91%9.91%9.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)232.39234.59236.79
Year 2 PV (M)332.72339.06345.45
Year 3 PV (M)424.62436.81449.23
Year 4 PV (M)508.62528.18548.30
Year 5 PV (M)585.19613.45642.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,964.329,397.309,846.85
Equity Value (M)11,047.8611,549.3912,069.43
Shares Outstanding (M)207.45207.45207.45
Fair Value$53.26$55.67$58.18
Upside / Downside-54.87%-52.82%-50.70%

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