Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangyin Pivot Automotive Products Co., Ltd. (301181.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.78 - $15.06$12.24
Multi-Stage$21.87 - $24.07$22.95
Blended Fair Value$17.59
Current Price$31.15
Upside-43.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS29.22%0.00%0.660.470.470.000.820.180.010.240.000.00
YoY Growth--40.69%0.00%31,027.33%-99.82%351.82%1,904.42%-96.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.70%1.98%1.50%0.01%2.32%0.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)123.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24.6515.419.24
Cash Retained (M)64.9864.9864.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-24.65-15.41-9.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.3349.5855.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)115.78115.78115.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.430.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.430.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.98
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$9.78$12.24$15.06
Upside / Downside-68.62%-60.72%-51.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)123.26122.03120.81119.60118.40117.22120.74
Payout Ratio47.28%55.82%64.37%72.91%81.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.2868.1277.7687.2096.45105.50111.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)63.3063.9464.59
Year 2 PV (M)67.1368.5169.90
Year 3 PV (M)69.9572.1174.32
Year 4 PV (M)71.8974.8777.94
Year 5 PV (M)73.0676.8780.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,186.462,300.312,418.86
Equity Value (M)2,531.792,656.612,786.44
Shares Outstanding (M)115.78115.78115.78
Fair Value$21.87$22.95$24.07
Upside / Downside-29.80%-26.34%-22.74%

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