Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Zhengqiang Corporation Limited (301119.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.70 - $218.16$123.74
Multi-Stage$32.11 - $35.10$33.58
Blended Fair Value$78.66
Current Price$38.50
Upside104.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS68.57%0.00%0.230.150.060.000.000.020.000.970.000.00
YoY Growth--59.40%156.16%0.00%0.00%-100.00%3,743.85%-99.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.74%0.67%0.26%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)115.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)109.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.1414.468.68
Cash Retained (M)6.596.596.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.14-14.46-8.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)-16.54-7.87-2.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)104.68104.68104.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.08-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.08-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.971.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate4.71%5.71%6.71%
Fair Value$50.70$123.74$218.16
Upside / Downside31.68%221.41%466.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)115.68122.29129.27136.65144.46152.71157.29
Payout Ratio94.30%93.44%92.58%91.72%90.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)109.09114.26119.68125.34131.26137.44145.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate4.71%5.71%6.71%
Year 1 PV (M)106.24107.25108.27
Year 2 PV (M)103.46105.44107.45
Year 3 PV (M)100.74103.65106.62
Year 4 PV (M)98.08101.88105.79
Year 5 PV (M)95.49100.14104.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,857.462,996.543,140.98
Equity Value (M)3,361.463,514.903,674.07
Shares Outstanding (M)104.68104.68104.68
Fair Value$32.11$33.58$35.10
Upside / Downside-16.59%-12.78%-8.83%

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