Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

COFCO Technology & Industry Co., Ltd. (301058.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.89 - $10.28$7.77
Multi-Stage$10.31 - $11.33$10.81
Blended Fair Value$9.29
Current Price$10.94
Upside-15.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS2.37%0.00%0.150.210.150.000.000.130.050.170.000.00
YoY Growth---27.34%36.85%14,590.29%0.00%-100.00%158.28%-69.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.37%2.20%0.98%0.01%0.00%0.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)236.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.2629.5417.72
Cash Retained (M)155.61155.61155.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.26-29.54-17.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.35126.07137.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)521.58521.58521.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.37%1.37%2.37%
Fair Value$5.89$7.77$10.28
Upside / Downside-46.13%-28.99%-6.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)236.32239.54242.82246.14249.50252.91260.49
Payout Ratio34.15%45.32%56.49%67.66%78.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.71108.56137.17166.54196.68227.62240.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate0.37%1.37%2.37%
Year 1 PV (M)100.90101.90102.91
Year 2 PV (M)118.48120.85123.24
Year 3 PV (M)133.68137.71141.83
Year 4 PV (M)146.72152.66158.77
Year 5 PV (M)157.81165.83174.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,719.924,959.785,209.30
Equity Value (M)5,377.495,638.735,910.23
Shares Outstanding (M)521.58521.58521.58
Fair Value$10.31$10.81$11.33
Upside / Downside-5.76%-1.18%3.58%

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