Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Inno Laser Technology Co., Ltd. (301021.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.29 - $3.40$2.82
Multi-Stage$4.27 - $4.69$4.48
Blended Fair Value$3.65
Current Price$39.48
Upside-90.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-43.00%0.00%0.000.100.120.010.040.030.050.040.010.00
YoY Growth---97.98%-16.74%1,082.40%-72.65%10.44%-25.12%2.92%242.40%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.01%0.52%0.45%0.03%0.08%0.07%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.615.383.23
Cash Retained (M)27.4827.4827.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.61-5.38-3.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.8722.0924.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)150.92150.92150.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.29$2.82$3.40
Upside / Downside-94.20%-92.86%-91.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.0642.6342.2041.7841.3640.9542.18
Payout Ratio36.19%46.95%57.71%68.48%79.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.5820.0224.3628.6132.7836.8639.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)18.3918.5718.76
Year 2 PV (M)20.5520.9721.40
Year 3 PV (M)22.1822.8623.56
Year 4 PV (M)23.3424.3025.30
Year 5 PV (M)24.1025.3626.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)535.67563.57592.61
Equity Value (M)644.23675.64708.30
Shares Outstanding (M)150.92150.92150.92
Fair Value$4.27$4.48$4.69
Upside / Downside-89.19%-88.66%-88.11%

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