Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Coco Healthcare Products Co.,Ltd. (301009.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.89 - $1.25$1.07
Multi-Stage$1.71 - $1.88$1.79
Blended Fair Value$1.43
Current Price$13.35
Upside-89.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-35.51%0.00%0.080.000.070.000.090.680.010.180.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%2,055.96%-96.26%-86.91%11,734.02%-96.73%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.69%0.00%0.58%0.02%0.34%2.63%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.424.642.78
Cash Retained (M)18.3918.3918.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.42-4.64-2.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.9713.7515.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)265.56265.56265.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate-3.68%-2.68%-1.68%
Fair Value$0.89$1.07$1.25
Upside / Downside-93.35%-91.99%-90.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.0936.0935.1334.1933.2732.3833.35
Payout Ratio50.41%58.33%66.25%74.17%82.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.7021.0523.2725.3527.3129.1430.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate-3.68%-2.68%-1.68%
Year 1 PV (M)19.2119.4119.61
Year 2 PV (M)19.3819.7920.20
Year 3 PV (M)19.2719.8820.50
Year 4 PV (M)18.9419.7420.57
Year 5 PV (M)18.4519.4320.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)358.47377.47397.27
Equity Value (M)453.74475.72498.59
Shares Outstanding (M)265.56265.56265.56
Fair Value$1.71$1.79$1.88
Upside / Downside-87.20%-86.58%-85.94%

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