Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NINGBO HENGSHUAI Co., Ltd. (300969.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.37 - $404.22$144.97
Multi-Stage$41.93 - $45.87$43.86
Blended Fair Value$94.42
Current Price$128.79
Upside-26.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS200.54%0.00%0.360.230.230.230.000.001.820.000.000.00
YoY Growth--59.72%-0.16%0.34%0.00%-100.00%-99.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.59%0.38%0.49%0.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)179.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)147.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.8522.4113.44
Cash Retained (M)147.26147.26147.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.85-22.41-13.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)111.40124.85133.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)88.1988.1988.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.261.421.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.261.421.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.631.781.88
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$74.37$144.97$404.22
Upside / Downside-42.25%12.56%213.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)179.26190.91203.32216.53230.61245.60252.96
Payout Ratio17.85%32.28%46.71%61.14%75.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.0061.6394.97132.39174.27221.04233.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)56.6357.1657.70
Year 2 PV (M)80.1981.7183.26
Year 3 PV (M)102.71105.66108.67
Year 4 PV (M)124.24129.02133.93
Year 5 PV (M)144.79151.79159.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,189.003,343.033,502.96
Equity Value (M)3,697.563,868.384,045.56
Shares Outstanding (M)88.1988.1988.19
Fair Value$41.93$43.86$45.87
Upside / Downside-67.45%-65.94%-64.38%

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