Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Guangdong Green Precision Components Co., Ltd (300968.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.68 - $1.09$0.87
Multi-Stage$1.95 - $2.15$2.05
Blended Fair Value$1.46
Current Price$15.62
Upside-90.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%26.99%0.050.210.210.000.000.000.000.000.010.04
YoY Growth---75.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-72.60%-74.07%814.61%
Dividend Yield--0.31%2.08%2.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.05%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.043.151.89
Cash Retained (M)4.514.514.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.04-3.15-1.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.531.362.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)388.46388.46388.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate5.48%5.48%5.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.68$0.87$1.09
Upside / Downside-95.65%-94.45%-92.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25.1824.9224.6724.4324.1823.9424.66
Payout Ratio82.10%83.68%85.26%86.84%88.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.6720.8621.0421.2121.3821.5522.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.48%5.48%5.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)19.5719.7719.97
Year 2 PV (M)18.5318.9119.29
Year 3 PV (M)17.5318.0818.63
Year 4 PV (M)16.5917.2817.98
Year 5 PV (M)15.6916.5017.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)670.27705.17741.52
Equity Value (M)758.18795.71834.75
Shares Outstanding (M)388.46388.46388.46
Fair Value$1.95$2.05$2.15
Upside / Downside-87.50%-86.89%-86.24%

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