Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Hyea Aromas Co., Ltd. (300886.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.99 - $73.12$68.48
Multi-Stage$122.79 - $135.59$129.07
Blended Fair Value$98.77
Current Price$28.35
Upside248.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-70.22%-40.70%0.000.050.050.150.030.220.130.130.190.34
YoY Growth---99.02%6.41%-67.50%348.35%-84.54%65.45%0.00%-31.03%-42.95%252.56%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.30%0.21%0.58%0.11%0.31%0.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.823.642.18
Cash Retained (M)21.6621.6621.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.82-3.64-2.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.8418.0219.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)74.6274.6274.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate-21.43%-21.43%-21.43%
Growth Rate-0.69%0.31%1.31%
Fair Value$61.99$68.48$73.12
Upside / Downside118.66%141.56%157.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.1129.2029.2929.3829.4729.5630.45
Payout Ratio25.58%38.47%51.35%64.23%77.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.4511.2315.0418.8722.7326.6128.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-21.43%-21.43%-21.43%
Growth Rate-0.69%0.31%1.31%
Year 1 PV (M)14.1514.3014.44
Year 2 PV (M)23.8824.3624.85
Year 3 PV (M)37.7538.9040.08
Year 4 PV (M)57.2959.6362.04
Year 5 PV (M)84.5088.8493.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,945.159,404.699,882.92
Equity Value (M)9,162.729,630.7210,117.69
Shares Outstanding (M)74.6274.6274.62
Fair Value$122.79$129.07$135.59
Upside / Downside333.14%355.26%378.28%

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