Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yangzhou Seashine New Materials Co.,Ltd. (300885.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.04 - $15.61$9.16
Multi-Stage$9.37 - $10.29$9.82
Blended Fair Value$9.49
Current Price$24.01
Upside-60.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS75.21%0.00%0.080.000.000.240.000.000.030.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-83.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.53%0.00%0.00%1.81%0.00%0.03%0.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)38.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.628.515.11
Cash Retained (M)38.1038.1038.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.62-8.51-5.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.4829.5933.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)250.07250.07250.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate5.56%5.56%5.56%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Fair Value$6.04$9.16$15.61
Upside / Downside-74.85%-61.85%-34.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.1170.0772.0974.1676.3078.5080.85
Payout Ratio44.05%53.24%62.43%71.62%80.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.0037.3045.0053.1261.6670.6574.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.56%5.56%5.56%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Year 1 PV (M)35.0035.3435.68
Year 2 PV (M)39.6140.3941.18
Year 3 PV (M)43.8645.1646.49
Year 4 PV (M)47.7649.6651.62
Year 5 PV (M)51.3453.9156.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,125.482,231.862,342.46
Equity Value (M)2,343.052,456.332,574.02
Shares Outstanding (M)250.07250.07250.07
Fair Value$9.37$9.82$10.29
Upside / Downside-60.98%-59.09%-57.13%

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