Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Jianan Electronics Co.,Ltd (300880.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.12 - $6.32$5.15
Multi-Stage$9.41 - $10.33$9.86
Blended Fair Value$7.50
Current Price$19.78
Upside-62.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.300.500.250.140.000.000.050.000.010.00
YoY Growth---39.69%101.21%80.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.27%2.89%1.43%0.84%0.00%0.00%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)89.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)87.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)1.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.8011.126.67
Cash Retained (M)1.111.111.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.80-11.12-6.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)-16.69-10.02-5.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)195.07195.07195.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.05-0.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.09-0.05-0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.12$5.15$6.32
Upside / Downside-79.16%-73.97%-68.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)89.0088.1187.2386.3585.4984.6387.17
Payout Ratio98.75%97.00%95.25%93.50%91.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)87.8985.4783.0880.7478.4476.1780.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)79.3180.1280.93
Year 2 PV (M)71.5473.0174.49
Year 3 PV (M)64.5266.5168.55
Year 4 PV (M)58.1660.5763.06
Year 5 PV (M)52.4155.1457.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,509.551,588.161,670.01
Equity Value (M)1,835.501,923.512,015.02
Shares Outstanding (M)195.07195.07195.07
Fair Value$9.41$9.86$10.33
Upside / Downside-52.43%-50.15%-47.78%

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