Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ningbo KBE Electrical Technology Co.,Ltd. (300863.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$197.38 - $232.55$217.93
Multi-Stage$142.89 - $156.79$149.71
Blended Fair Value$183.82
Current Price$40.35
Upside355.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS49.22%0.00%0.550.430.340.340.090.070.160.080.100.00
YoY Growth--27.13%27.80%-1.57%269.08%25.33%-52.44%95.81%-18.50%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.98%1.09%1.46%0.31%0.14%0.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)168.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.7521.1012.66
Cash Retained (M)97.8797.8797.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.75-21.10-12.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)64.1276.7785.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)144.32144.32144.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.530.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.530.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate1.06%1.06%1.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$197.38$217.93$232.55
Upside / Downside389.18%440.11%476.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)168.76179.73191.41203.86217.11231.22238.16
Payout Ratio42.01%51.61%61.21%70.80%80.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.8992.75117.16144.34174.56208.10220.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.06%1.06%1.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)90.9291.7892.64
Year 2 PV (M)112.56114.71116.87
Year 3 PV (M)135.93139.83143.81
Year 4 PV (M)161.14167.33173.71
Year 5 PV (M)188.29197.39206.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,933.0920,895.8721,895.49
Equity Value (M)20,621.9421,606.9122,629.36
Shares Outstanding (M)144.32144.32144.32
Fair Value$142.89$149.71$156.79
Upside / Downside254.12%271.03%288.59%

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