Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearing Co., Ltd. (300850.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$351.13 - $413.69$387.69
Multi-Stage$119.85 - $131.47$125.55
Blended Fair Value$256.62
Current Price$43.48
Upside490.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS70.34%0.00%0.270.210.190.140.020.020.020.010.020.00
YoY Growth--25.30%14.99%31.72%750.95%-11.21%18.90%51.39%-35.70%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.02%0.85%0.41%0.21%0.03%0.19%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)765.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)691.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)153.0695.6657.40
Cash Retained (M)691.37691.37691.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-153.06-95.66-57.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)538.31595.70633.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)367.91367.91367.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.461.621.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.461.621.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.661.821.92
WACC / Discount Rate4.80%4.80%4.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$351.13$387.69$413.69
Upside / Downside707.57%791.65%851.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)765.31815.05868.03924.45984.541,048.541,080.00
Payout Ratio9.66%25.73%41.80%57.86%73.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.94209.71362.81534.93727.90943.69999.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.80%4.80%4.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)198.22200.10201.98
Year 2 PV (M)324.15330.32336.56
Year 3 PV (M)451.75464.72477.93
Year 4 PV (M)581.03603.38626.36
Year 5 PV (M)712.02746.41782.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)41,825.2443,845.4245,942.91
Equity Value (M)44,092.4146,190.3448,367.85
Shares Outstanding (M)367.91367.91367.91
Fair Value$119.85$125.55$131.47
Upside / Downside175.63%188.75%202.36%

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