Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

JinXianDai Information Industry Co.,Ltd. (300830.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.24 - $0.35$0.29
Multi-Stage$0.43 - $0.47$0.45
Blended Fair Value$0.37
Current Price$11.69
Upside-96.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%114.69%0.030.050.050.020.000.000.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth---52.57%4.28%116.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%117,578.43%
Dividend Yield--0.30%0.81%0.50%0.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.771.731.04
Cash Retained (M)2.902.902.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.77-1.73-1.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.141.181.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)415.31415.31415.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.030.030.03
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.24$0.29$0.35
Upside / Downside-97.93%-97.48%-97.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.8313.7013.5613.4213.2913.1613.55
Payout Ratio79.01%81.20%83.40%85.60%87.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.9311.1211.3111.4911.6711.8412.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)10.1210.2210.33
Year 2 PV (M)9.369.559.75
Year 3 PV (M)8.668.929.20
Year 4 PV (M)8.008.338.67
Year 5 PV (M)7.387.778.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)134.87141.89149.21
Equity Value (M)178.39186.69195.32
Shares Outstanding (M)415.31415.31415.31
Fair Value$0.43$0.45$0.47
Upside / Downside-96.33%-96.15%-95.98%

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