Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wuhan Raycus Fiber Laser Technologies Co.,Ltd. (300747.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.07 - $11.76$7.43
Multi-Stage$3.58 - $3.91$3.75
Blended Fair Value$5.59
Current Price$26.70
Upside-79.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.73%30.74%0.140.120.010.050.050.110.060.030.010.01
YoY Growth--11.57%811.03%-73.74%10.29%-59.20%102.02%88.45%250.22%-31.09%32.24%
Dividend Yield--0.68%0.60%0.05%0.17%0.11%0.43%0.14%0.24%0.07%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)137.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)115.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.4517.1610.29
Cash Retained (M)115.97115.97115.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.45-17.16-10.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.5298.81105.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)561.14561.14561.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.07$7.43$11.76
Upside / Downside-81.00%-72.18%-55.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)137.26146.18155.68165.80176.58188.06193.70
Payout Ratio15.51%30.41%45.31%60.20%75.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.2944.4570.5399.82132.61169.25179.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)40.1940.5740.95
Year 2 PV (M)57.6558.7559.86
Year 3 PV (M)73.7775.8878.04
Year 4 PV (M)88.6092.0195.52
Year 5 PV (M)102.24107.17112.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,647.541,727.121,809.74
Equity Value (M)2,009.992,101.512,196.41
Shares Outstanding (M)561.14561.14561.14
Fair Value$3.58$3.75$3.91
Upside / Downside-86.58%-85.97%-85.34%

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