Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen Cotran New Material Co.,Ltd. (300731.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.54 - $53.20$45.14
Multi-Stage$6.85 - $7.49$7.17
Blended Fair Value$26.15
Current Price$44.26
Upside-40.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.18%1.72%0.130.170.060.150.120.090.250.160.200.13
YoY Growth---21.28%165.73%-58.44%25.41%35.87%-63.96%55.56%-20.00%56.25%14.29%
Dividend Yield--0.49%0.96%0.34%0.74%0.47%0.29%1.16%0.62%1.46%0.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.734.202.52
Cash Retained (M)12.7512.7512.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.73-4.20-2.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.028.5410.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)125.76125.76125.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.05%7.05%7.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.54$45.14$53.20
Upside / Downside-67.14%1.98%20.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.6435.8338.1640.6443.2846.0947.47
Payout Ratio62.10%67.68%73.26%78.84%84.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.8924.2527.9532.0436.5341.4843.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.05%7.05%7.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)22.4422.6522.86
Year 2 PV (M)23.9424.3924.85
Year 3 PV (M)25.3826.1126.86
Year 4 PV (M)26.7927.8228.88
Year 5 PV (M)28.1429.5030.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)735.23770.74807.61
Equity Value (M)861.92901.22941.97
Shares Outstanding (M)125.76125.76125.76
Fair Value$6.85$7.17$7.49
Upside / Downside-84.52%-83.81%-83.08%

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