Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jones Tech PLC (300684.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.31 - $214.07$200.61
Multi-Stage$30.46 - $33.31$31.86
Blended Fair Value$116.24
Current Price$40.84
Upside184.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.62%80.87%0.240.610.410.590.360.110.070.030.020.08
YoY Growth---60.81%49.61%-30.98%66.09%234.89%49.07%144.10%41.11%-75.39%13,071.27%
Dividend Yield--0.95%3.69%2.31%3.74%1.90%0.41%0.28%0.13%0.52%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)321.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)193.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)127.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.2040.1324.08
Cash Retained (M)127.17127.17127.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.20-40.13-24.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.9787.05103.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)298.24298.24298.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.290.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.650.650.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.290.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.860.941.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$77.31$200.61$214.07
Upside / Downside89.30%391.21%424.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)321.02341.89364.11387.78412.99439.83453.02
Payout Ratio60.38%66.31%72.23%78.15%84.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)193.85226.70263.00303.06347.23395.85419.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)210.52212.51214.51
Year 2 PV (M)226.80231.12235.48
Year 3 PV (M)242.69249.66256.76
Year 4 PV (M)258.21268.14278.35
Year 5 PV (M)273.35286.56300.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,873.978,254.298,649.16
Equity Value (M)9,085.549,502.279,934.52
Shares Outstanding (M)298.24298.24298.24
Fair Value$30.46$31.86$33.31
Upside / Downside-25.41%-21.99%-18.44%

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