Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nanjing Hicin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (300584.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.45 - $1.92$1.70
Multi-Stage$2.82 - $3.11$2.96
Blended Fair Value$2.33
Current Price$56.09
Upside-95.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.30%20.14%0.120.050.300.180.310.250.200.210.050.06
YoY Growth--114.24%-81.79%61.25%-40.48%23.45%23.96%-3.76%297.98%-17.56%246.16%
Dividend Yield--0.57%0.30%1.20%0.33%1.65%1.03%0.68%0.59%0.17%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.965.603.36
Cash Retained (M)26.9526.9526.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.96-5.60-3.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.9921.3523.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate-8.99%-7.99%-6.99%
Fair Value$1.45$1.70$1.92
Upside / Downside-97.41%-96.97%-96.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.7841.2037.9134.8832.1029.5330.42
Payout Ratio39.82%49.86%59.89%69.93%79.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.8320.5422.7124.3925.6726.5828.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate-8.99%-7.99%-6.99%
Year 1 PV (M)18.5218.7318.93
Year 2 PV (M)18.4618.8719.28
Year 3 PV (M)17.8818.4819.09
Year 4 PV (M)16.9717.7218.51
Year 5 PV (M)15.8416.7317.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)250.44264.50279.19
Equity Value (M)338.11355.03372.66
Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
Fair Value$2.82$2.96$3.11
Upside / Downside-94.98%-94.73%-94.46%

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