Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

T&S Communications Co.,Ltd. (300570.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.52 - $135.05$69.66
Multi-Stage$29.34 - $32.03$30.66
Blended Fair Value$50.16
Current Price$105.28
Upside-52.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.52%16.84%0.500.500.300.300.460.370.220.210.170.11
YoY Growth--0.80%68.30%0.00%-35.32%25.00%63.64%4.21%26.67%48.15%8.00%
Dividend Yield--0.60%1.26%1.08%1.99%2.87%1.65%0.87%1.17%0.65%0.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)375.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)181.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)194.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)75.1646.9728.18
Cash Retained (M)194.08194.08194.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-75.16-46.97-28.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)118.93147.11165.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)226.05226.05226.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.650.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.650.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.451.54
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$43.52$69.66$135.05
Upside / Downside-58.66%-33.84%28.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)375.78400.21426.22453.93483.43514.86530.30
Payout Ratio48.35%56.68%65.01%73.34%81.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)181.70226.85277.09332.92394.82463.37490.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.72%8.72%8.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)206.69208.65210.60
Year 2 PV (M)230.03234.41238.83
Year 3 PV (M)251.81259.03266.40
Year 4 PV (M)272.09282.55293.32
Year 5 PV (M)290.95305.00319.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,380.895,640.795,910.64
Equity Value (M)6,632.456,930.447,239.38
Shares Outstanding (M)226.05226.05226.05
Fair Value$29.34$30.66$32.03
Upside / Downside-72.13%-70.88%-69.58%

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