Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Exciton Technology Co., Ltd. (300566.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.99 - $141.19$132.32
Multi-Stage$19.71 - $21.57$20.62
Blended Fair Value$76.47
Current Price$18.93
Upside303.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.97%9.07%0.220.150.210.160.100.130.130.100.110.10
YoY Growth--48.11%-29.44%26.05%56.89%-18.58%-0.30%24.03%-1.76%6.29%9.65%
Dividend Yield--1.07%1.02%1.08%0.82%0.35%0.95%1.05%0.75%0.49%1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)187.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)126.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.5823.4914.09
Cash Retained (M)126.72126.72126.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.58-23.49-14.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)89.14103.23112.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)264.64264.64264.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.620.66
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$50.99$132.32$141.19
Upside / Downside169.37%598.98%645.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)187.88200.09213.10226.95241.70257.41265.13
Payout Ratio32.55%44.04%55.53%67.02%78.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.1688.13118.34152.11189.76231.67245.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)81.8482.6183.39
Year 2 PV (M)102.05103.99105.95
Year 3 PV (M)121.80125.30128.86
Year 4 PV (M)141.11146.54152.12
Year 5 PV (M)159.98167.71175.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,608.284,830.865,061.96
Equity Value (M)5,215.065,457.025,708.02
Shares Outstanding (M)264.64264.64264.64
Fair Value$19.71$20.62$21.57
Upside / Downside4.10%8.93%13.94%

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