Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shijiazhuang Tonhe Electronics Technologies Co.,Ltd. (300491.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.81 - $6.30$4.07
Multi-Stage$2.03 - $2.21$2.12
Blended Fair Value$3.09
Current Price$33.36
Upside-90.73%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS88.94%14.11%0.170.080.050.040.010.010.020.100.140.05
YoY Growth--98.75%58.17%25.31%246.12%76.59%-58.86%-82.35%-33.42%191.83%10.20%
Dividend Yield--0.92%0.44%0.25%0.30%0.09%0.05%0.09%0.47%0.41%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.702.941.76
Cash Retained (M)18.1418.1418.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.70-2.94-1.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.4415.2116.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)167.09167.09167.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.81$4.07$6.30
Upside / Downside-91.57%-87.80%-81.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.4825.0126.6328.3630.2132.1733.14
Payout Ratio22.74%36.19%49.65%63.10%76.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.349.0513.2217.9023.1228.9530.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8.178.258.33
Year 2 PV (M)10.7810.9811.19
Year 3 PV (M)13.1713.5513.93
Year 4 PV (M)15.3715.9616.56
Year 5 PV (M)17.3718.2119.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)273.69286.91300.64
Equity Value (M)338.55353.86369.73
Shares Outstanding (M)167.09167.09167.09
Fair Value$2.03$2.12$2.21
Upside / Downside-93.93%-93.65%-93.37%

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