Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Goldstone Asia Pharmaceutical Inc. (300434.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.89 - $12.47$8.36
Multi-Stage$7.53 - $8.27$7.89
Blended Fair Value$8.12
Current Price$9.45
Upside-14.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.24%15.74%0.110.000.000.000.080.090.070.040.020.03
YoY Growth--6,000.19%555.46%-65.25%-98.94%-16.76%36.79%62.08%143.66%-35.66%0.80%
Dividend Yield--1.37%0.02%0.00%0.01%0.94%1.27%0.65%0.32%0.09%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)101.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.0816.309.78
Cash Retained (M)101.71101.71101.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.08-16.30-9.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.6385.4191.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)401.47401.47401.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Fair Value$5.89$8.36$12.47
Upside / Downside-37.69%-11.58%31.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.40134.62138.98143.48148.12152.92157.51
Payout Ratio22.00%35.60%49.20%62.80%76.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.6947.9268.3890.10113.17137.63145.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)44.4644.8945.33
Year 2 PV (M)58.8560.0061.17
Year 3 PV (M)71.9474.0776.25
Year 4 PV (M)83.8287.1590.58
Year 5 PV (M)94.5799.29104.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,670.392,803.572,942.01
Equity Value (M)3,024.033,168.983,319.52
Shares Outstanding (M)401.47401.47401.47
Fair Value$7.53$7.89$8.27
Upside / Downside-20.29%-16.47%-12.50%

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