Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PhiChem Corporation (300398.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$94.28 - $123.80$116.02
Multi-Stage$20.71 - $22.69$21.68
Blended Fair Value$68.85
Current Price$26.39
Upside160.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.18%29.28%0.170.080.070.060.120.080.040.020.040.03
YoY Growth--115.39%14.17%9.96%-46.91%47.45%100.00%105.16%-50.00%30.00%131.06%
Dividend Yield--0.97%0.64%0.33%0.21%0.78%0.42%0.25%0.10%0.18%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)331.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)43.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)288.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.3241.4524.87
Cash Retained (M)288.14288.14288.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.32-41.45-24.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)221.82246.69263.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)532.68532.68532.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.58
WACC / Discount Rate6.06%6.06%6.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$94.28$116.02$123.80
Upside / Downside257.27%339.65%369.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)331.61353.16376.12400.56426.60454.33467.96
Payout Ratio13.11%28.49%43.87%59.24%74.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)43.47100.60164.98237.31318.34408.90432.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.06%6.06%6.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)93.9794.8695.75
Year 2 PV (M)143.94146.68149.44
Year 3 PV (M)193.37198.93204.58
Year 4 PV (M)242.29251.61261.19
Year 5 PV (M)290.69304.73319.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,065.3510,551.5111,056.28
Equity Value (M)11,029.6111,548.3112,086.55
Shares Outstanding (M)532.68532.68532.68
Fair Value$20.71$21.68$22.69
Upside / Downside-21.54%-17.85%-14.02%

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