Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Changshu Tianyin Electromechanical Co.,Ltd (300342.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.81 - $1.12$0.96
Multi-Stage$1.35 - $1.48$1.42
Blended Fair Value$1.19
Current Price$17.90
Upside-93.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.98%-1.51%0.100.010.120.170.160.180.200.160.150.12
YoY Growth--1,726.53%-95.21%-30.74%3.03%-10.48%-7.72%22.95%4.09%30.43%-0.22%
Dividend Yield--0.61%0.04%1.18%1.64%1.48%1.16%2.09%1.14%0.86%0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.887.424.45
Cash Retained (M)31.4431.4431.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.88-7.42-4.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.5624.0226.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)425.17425.17425.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-3.51%-2.51%-1.51%
Fair Value$0.81$0.96$1.12
Upside / Downside-95.50%-94.62%-93.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.4057.9156.4555.0453.6652.3153.88
Payout Ratio47.06%55.65%64.24%72.83%81.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.9532.2336.2740.0843.6847.0849.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate-3.51%-2.51%-1.51%
Year 1 PV (M)29.0329.3329.63
Year 2 PV (M)29.4330.0430.66
Year 3 PV (M)29.3030.2231.16
Year 4 PV (M)28.7729.9831.23
Year 5 PV (M)27.9329.4130.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)430.32453.09476.81
Equity Value (M)574.78602.07630.43
Shares Outstanding (M)425.17425.17425.17
Fair Value$1.35$1.42$1.48
Upside / Downside-92.45%-92.09%-91.72%

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