Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen Microgate Technology Co., Ltd. (300319.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.73 - $76.79$71.97
Multi-Stage$10.72 - $11.74$11.22
Blended Fair Value$41.59
Current Price$12.82
Upside224.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.87%31.21%0.100.130.060.030.030.030.030.060.030.01
YoY Growth---25.21%110.47%133.96%-13.64%7.47%-16.60%-38.63%57.40%171.74%102.08%
Dividend Yield--0.83%1.53%0.62%0.27%0.37%0.29%0.43%0.75%0.33%0.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)337.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)111.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)225.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.4242.1425.28
Cash Retained (M)225.58225.58225.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.42-42.14-25.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)158.16183.45200.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)873.01873.01873.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27.73$71.97$76.79
Upside / Downside116.34%461.36%499.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)337.10359.01382.35407.20433.67461.86475.71
Payout Ratio33.08%44.46%55.85%67.23%78.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)111.52159.63213.54273.77340.93415.67440.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)148.24149.65151.05
Year 2 PV (M)184.14187.65191.19
Year 3 PV (M)219.23225.53231.94
Year 4 PV (M)253.53263.28273.31
Year 5 PV (M)287.05300.91315.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,268.438,667.799,082.45
Equity Value (M)9,360.629,794.8110,245.24
Shares Outstanding (M)873.01873.01873.01
Fair Value$10.72$11.22$11.74
Upside / Downside-16.36%-12.48%-8.46%

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