Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Kinlita Chemical Co., Ltd. (300225.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.42 - $0.61$0.51
Multi-Stage$0.67 - $0.74$0.70
Blended Fair Value$0.61
Current Price$5.27
Upside-88.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-20.55%0.010.000.000.020.010.000.040.050.070.08
YoY Growth--89.64%0.00%-100.00%108.02%0.00%-100.00%-20.00%-28.57%-16.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.11%0.07%0.00%0.23%0.06%0.00%0.60%0.43%0.46%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.003.752.25
Cash Retained (M)26.8626.8626.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.00-3.75-2.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.8723.1124.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)502.12502.12502.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.42$0.51$0.61
Upside / Downside-91.98%-90.26%-88.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.9829.6829.3829.0928.8028.5129.36
Payout Ratio10.40%26.32%42.24%58.16%74.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.127.8112.4116.9221.3325.6627.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.07%9.07%9.07%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)7.097.167.23
Year 2 PV (M)10.2210.4310.64
Year 3 PV (M)12.6513.0413.44
Year 4 PV (M)14.4715.0715.69
Year 5 PV (M)15.8016.6217.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)275.46289.81304.74
Equity Value (M)335.69352.13369.22
Shares Outstanding (M)502.12502.12502.12
Fair Value$0.67$0.70$0.74
Upside / Downside-87.31%-86.69%-86.05%

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